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The Trouble with Predictions
Predictions from various epidemic models are driving crucial global policies. But their estimates are all over the place — So which one do we trust? To predict, we create an approximate version of…
Read more at Towards Data Science
Going Beyond Predictions
Last Updated on June 7, 2016 The predictions you make with a predictive model do not matter, it is the use of those predictions that matters. Jeremy Howard was the President and Chief Scientist of Kag...
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From prediction to decision making
Prediction (correlation) does not imply causation, and it is not sufficient to correctly inform decision and policy makers.
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The Art of Making Better Predictions
The day-to-day work of a data scientist can involve very complex concepts, but at its core we find a simple premise: if we look at enough (reliable) information from the past, we might be able to say ...
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Football Prediction
In July of this year I vowed to win my fantasy football league. I wanted to create an algorithm that would give me insights on how each player would be predicted to perform on a weekly basis. In the…
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Probabilistic Predictions
In data science, the traditional approach to dealing with prediction error reminds me of the iceberg metaphor. Our models cannot predict the future perfectly, so we optimize them to push the…
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Data in, Predictions out
It is always advantageous for data scientists to follow a well-defined data science workflow when working with big data. Regardless of whether a data scientist wants to perform analysis with the…
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A Theory of Prediction
The Signal and the Noise is probably the most informative non-technical book about the art of predicting ever written. It outlines what is best described as Nate Silver’s “Theory of Prediction”…
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The Prediction Economy
Odds are, if you’re reading this post, you already have some exposure to statistics, machine learning, or artificial intelligence. This post isn’t about preparing you to enter the data science…
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Prediction contest
I have been seeing this paper all over Twitter/the blogosphere. It’s a sexy idea: can you predict how “high-impact” a scientist will be in the future. It is also a pretty flawed data analysis…so this ...
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Probability and Predictability
Suppose you are watching the nightly news (or more likely your phone just tells you) that tomorrow there is a 30% chance of rain. Tomorrow, do you carry an umbrella? It’s a seemingly benign question…
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Predicting the future using Machine Learning part II
In this second part of the “Predicting the future using Machine Learning”-series I would like to elaborate further on finding a better generic model for the same dataset I worked with in the previous…...
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Prediction Using Monte Carlo Simulation
In this article I intend to briefly explain Prediction Using Monte Carlo Simulation with some examples of cases using Excel, remember that Excel is only a tool! The most important thing is how you…
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Predictive Models
The above image of a basketball player would have made you to think what a basketball player had to do with predictive models in ML. But this is what we will be focussing on in this story, where I…
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Predicting the Future With AI
Can we predict the future? Most would say no. Let’s change the wording of the question: Can data from the past tell us something about the future? This seems a lot more intuitive, and it’s what Time…
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Time Series Forecasting
Every day we encounter the situation where we predict the future outcomes, or we want that we could have known this earlier. Forecasting is nothing new but the old concept of getting to guess future…
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Telling the future is hard
Do you want to excel at telling the future? Nostradamus shows us one way: make your predictions as vague and ambiguous as possible and you will always be “right”. Try attaching a 40% probability to al...
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Time Series and Prediction (Part-2)
Cheers! you made it here. This is my second article on Time Series and prediction. If you have not read the first one then please read that article here. In this part, we are going to apply some deep…...
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Predicting the Future…with Learnings from the M5 Competition
For our Capstone project at Columbia University’s Data Science Institute (DSI), we wanted to tap into some of those rich learnings within the M5 Forecasting Competition, where 7,000+ individuals from…...
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Predicting unknown unknowns
For classification models for many domains and scenarios it is important to predict when the input given to the model does not belong to the classes it was trained on. It is also an important problem…...
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Statistical Prophecy and the Art of Forecasting
Prelude: “Margin Call” is believed to be one of the best movies made around the 2008 Financial Crisis. A must watch if you haven’t. With an astounding story of capitalism and a great cast — it was…
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Data to Predictions
“I didn’t see that one coming,” said no data scientist ever. Not because data contains answers to every question. But because they are prepared for any finding that the data might throw at them. With…...
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Start Making Predictions Today with Examples in Python
Learn the Basics of Predictive Analytics and How to Make Accurate Predictions with Your Data One of the most popular forms of regression analysis is linear regression, which allows you to establish a...
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A Look into the Crystal Ball
What is the future of interpretable machine learning? This chapter is a speculative mental exercise and a subjective guess how interpretable machine learning will develop. I opened the book with rathe...
Read more at Christophm Interpretable Machine Learning Book- «
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