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The Trouble with Predictions

Towards Data Science

Predictions from various epidemic models are driving crucial global policies. But their estimates are all over the place — So which one do we trust? To predict, we create an approximate version of…

Going Beyond Predictions

Machine Learning Mastery

Last Updated on June 7, 2016 The predictions you make with a predictive model do not matter, it is the use of those predictions that matters. Jeremy Howard was the President and Chief Scientist of Kag...

From prediction to decision making

Towards Data Science

Prediction (correlation) does not imply causation, and it is not sufficient to correctly inform decision and policy makers.

The Art of Making Better Predictions

Towards Data Science

The day-to-day work of a data scientist can involve very complex concepts, but at its core we find a simple premise: if we look at enough (reliable) information from the past, we might be able to say ...

Football Prediction

Analytics Vidhya

In July of this year I vowed to win my fantasy football league. I wanted to create an algorithm that would give me insights on how each player would be predicted to perform on a weekly basis. In the…

Probabilistic Predictions

Towards Data Science

In data science, the traditional approach to dealing with prediction error reminds me of the iceberg metaphor. Our models cannot predict the future perfectly, so we optimize them to push the…

Data in, Predictions out

Towards Data Science

It is always advantageous for data scientists to follow a well-defined data science workflow when working with big data. Regardless of whether a data scientist wants to perform analysis with the…

A Theory of Prediction

Towards Data Science

The Signal and the Noise is probably the most informative non-technical book about the art of predicting ever written. It outlines what is best described as Nate Silver’s “Theory of Prediction”…

The Prediction Economy

Level Up Coding

Odds are, if you’re reading this post, you already have some exposure to statistics, machine learning, or artificial intelligence. This post isn’t about preparing you to enter the data science…

Prediction contest

Simply Statistics

I have been seeing this paper all over Twitter/the blogosphere. It’s a sexy idea: can you predict how “high-impact” a scientist will be in the future. It is also a pretty flawed data analysis…so this ...

Predicting the Unpredictable

Towards Data Science

The Magic of Mixture Density Networks Explained Tired of your neural networks making lame predictions? 🤦‍♂️ Wish they could predict more than just the average future? Enter Mixture Density Networks ...

Probability and Predictability

Towards Data Science

Suppose you are watching the nightly news (or more likely your phone just tells you) that tomorrow there is a 30% chance of rain. Tomorrow, do you carry an umbrella? It’s a seemingly benign question…